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Tim Siggia's Election Forecast: 2003
By Tim Siggia
August 06, 2003
The following is an update to my last submission on the upcoming 2003 elections:
In Virginia, conservative Jeffrey Frederick upset "moderate" incumbent Jack Rollison in the Republican primary.
In New Jersey, governor Jim McGreevey is suffering from approval ratings in the low 30s, which may open the door for a Republican challenger.
The Kentucky primary was held on May 20, and results were pretty much as expected. In the governor's race, Democrat Ben Chandler narrowly defeated house speaker Jody Richards, after a rather ugly campaign with fellow Democrat Bruce Lunsford. Though Lunsford finally did endorse Chandler, Chandler is looked at askance by many voters in this conservative state, where he is largely regarded as a liberal hack. Chandler's running mate is former U.S. Senate candidate Charlie Owen. U.S. Representative Ernie Fletcher, whose resume includes his being a doctor, a fighter pilot, an engineer and a minister, won in the Republican primary with a commanding 58 percent of the vote in a four-way race. County executive Rebecca Jackson was his closest rival at 28 percent. Fletcher, a conservative, is expected to do well in his congressional district. His running mate is prosecutor Steve Pence. For secretary of state, Trey Grayson, a Harvard graduate in his 20s, was unchallenged in the Republican primary, with former lieutenant governor Russ Maple narrowly winning the Democratic primary. Grayson should have the edge here. For attorney general, both candidates come with personal baggage: Democrat Greg Stumbo is a deadbeat dad, and Republican Jack Wood a former judge who left the bench in the 80s after a series of questionable circumstances. The irony here is that one of these two will end up as Kentucky's top prosecutor. For treasurer, Republican Adam Koenig, a county commissioner, is favored to win over the Democratic candidate, Harvard graduate Jonathan Miller. For auditor, Republican Linda Greenwell will face Democrat Crit Luallen, and Republican Richie Farmer will face Democrat Alice Baesler for the office of agricultural commissioner. Baesler is the wife of former U.S. Representative Scotty Baseler, but Farmer, a former basketball star with plenty of name recognition, is favored in this race.
Louisiana, where in the governor's race we see the Democratic governor's race shaping up at least partially as predicted. Lieutenant Governor Kathleen Babineaux Blanco and state attorney general Richard Ieyoub are both in the running, but state treasurer John Kennedy is not a candidate this time. Instead, there are two additional Democrats: former state senate leader Randy Ewing and former congressman Buddy Leach. Ewing, the only candidate from northern Louisiana, is the most conservative of the four, but Blanco remains the favorite for the nomination.
On the Republican side, 28-year-old Bobby Jindal is the only one of the original three candidates to remain in the running. Facing Jindal are state representative Hunt Downer, a Democrat-turned-Republican who ran Democrats For Bush in 2000, public services commissioner Jay Blossman, and professor/legislative auditor Dan Kyle. With the support of Governor Foster and U.S. Representative Livingston, among other prominent Louisiana politicians, Jindal is the front-runner at this time. Hunt Downer, with bipartisan support including Representive Billy Tauzin, another former Democrat, is best positioned among the remaining three to challenge Jindal.
In the lieutenant governor's race, the Republican picture remains unchanged, with one exception: former Democrat lieutenant governor Melinda Schwegmann, now running as a Republican, the Democrats having endorsed Mitch Landrieu. Lineups for other Louisiana offices remain unchanged.
In Mississippi, the general picture remains unchanged.
But now, of course, we have a sudden addition to the mix, with California residents having successfully petitioned to recall Democratic governor Gray Davis, whose policies have led that state to fiscal disaster. Davis, who clearly did not deserve re-election and owes his return to office primarily to the larger cities, most notably ultra-liberal San Francisco, now has an approval rating somewhere in the low 20s, and, in a special election to be held in roughly two months, faces a myriad of challengers. Actor and former bodybuilder Arnold Schwarzenegger was for a time considered the top prospect, but is strongly opposed by the more conservative elements for his liberal stances on gay rights, abortion and gun control, among other issues. Rumor Control now has it that The Terminator will throw his support to fellow RINO Richard Riordan, the Bush-establishment choice defeated for nomination by the more conservative Bill Simon, but Arnold has given no official statements as yet. If true, this should make "Dubya" happy, but less "compassionate" conservatives are likely to take a dim view of the prospect of Riordan as governor. On the other hand, it could credibly be argued that any governor would be preferable to the one California now has, a man so totally irresponsible he makes Jerry Brown look like Ronald Reagan.
In the meantime, it would behoove us in Connecticut to keep a close eye on what happens in California. Our own Governor Rowland currently has an approval rating of 27 percent, with the state legislature collectively at 20: not exactly a recipe for smugness here. While Connecticut at present does not have a recall provision for its governors, Rowland's and the legislature's collective failure to produce a balanced and workable state budget could result in them all being turned out of office at election time.
In closing, I would like to give credit where it is due: to a website known as Johnny Z's Place, the primary source for my information. At www.angelfire.com/mo/zdawg/2003/election.html, Johnny Z's Place should be a required perusal for all Republicans, conservatives in particular. As the site reminds us: "Vote Republican - Johnny Z Does!"
And so do I.
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