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Tim Siggia's Election Forecast: 2003
By Tim Siggia
April 21, 2003
Though an off-year for most of the nation, five states will hold elections this year for state government: Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Virginia and New Jersey. Election Forecast will take a brief look at the no-surprises states of New Jersey and Virginia, then focus on the remaining states individually.
First, Virginia. Though it currently has a Democratic governor, the state legislature -- where the elections are this year in Virginia -- is solidly in Republican hands, with a 63-34 majority in the house and a 23-17 majority in the senate. Look for a widening of these majorities, particularly in the senate.
Next, New Jersey. Almost the opposite of Virginia, New Jersey's prospects seem weighted in favor of the Democrats, where that party has a 44-36 majority in the house, but the senate split down the middle, with Democrats and Republicans holding 20 seats each. No Republican gains expected here; in fact, demographics being what they are in this Northeastern state, even the Republicans are more likely than not to wear the moderate (read liberal) label.
Now for Mississippi: Lieutenant Governor Amy Tuck led the way in changing her affiliation from Democrat to Republican, with two state senators following suit: Terry Burton, who announced his switch on Dec. 30, and Travis Little, who announced his on March 1. On the house side, representatives Larry Baker, Frank Hamilton, Jim Barnett and Herb Frierson have switched their allegiances from Democrat to Republican. Though Democrats still have majorities in both house and senate (29-23 senate, 82-37-3 house) the trend is turning Republican as more legislators contemplate a switch of allegiances. The key here is ideology: Mississippi is a conservative state, with conservative Democrats unable to support the liberal stance of the national party. Four state representatives who were rumored to be considering a switch have remained with the Democratic Party: David Livingston, Mary Ann Stevens, Mike Eakes and Billy Nicholson. In the governor's race, incumbent Democratic governor Ronnie Musgrove finds himself in a face-off with former RNC chairman Haley Barbour. Musgrove is generally seen as a weak incumbent, Barbour as a strong challenger. To add to Musgrove's difficulties, he is also facing a challenge from within his party, from trial lawyer John Arthur Eaves, Jr., son of a former candidate for governor -- all of which points to a very likely change at the top. Incumbent lieutenant governor Tuck will seek re-election as a Republican, with Dr. Randy Russell stepping aside to give Tuck the nomination. For the Democrats, state senator Barbara Blackmon will face Jim Roberts, a former Supreme Court judge and gubernatorial candidate, in the primary. Race is expected to be a factor here, with the majority of Democrats being black, and Blackmon, who is black, will likely benefit from demographics here. In the attorney general's race, with attorney general Mike Moore not seeking reelection, the field is open. Three Republicans will face each other in primary: Rankin & Madison County district attorney John Kitchens of Jackson, Delbert Hosemann of Jackson, and assistant U.S. attorney Scott Newton of Ridgeland. Though Hosemann is better known than his opponents, this primary as yet is too close to call. For the Democrats, district attorney Jim Hood stands as Moore's personal choice, and faces no primary challenge. Likewise in the treasurer's race, long-time Democratic state treasurer Marshall Bennett is also bowing out, leaving primaries in both parties in his wake. Republicans have three would-be candidates vying for this office: commissioner Wayne Burkes, state representative and former judge Andrew Ketchings, and portfolio manager Tate Reeves. Democrats so far are fielding two hopefuls: state senator Rob Smith, and Cindy Ayers Eliot, founder of the First America Bank in Jackson and a former aide to treasurer Bennett. Eliot, with a likely endorsement from Bennett, is favored to win the primary. For Secretary of State, incumbent Eric Clark will seek re-election. His Republican opponent will be Julio Del Castillo of Jackson, a Peruvian immigrant who has lived in the United States since 1989, and an advocate of English immersion rather than bilingual education for immigrant students. Clark has the advantage of incumbency, and at present is considered the favorite. Agriculture Commissioner Lester Spell, also seeking re-election, will face Republican challenge either from former Democrat Roger Crowder or Max Phillips of Taylorsville.
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